Russian Attacks on Ukraine Double Since Trump's Inauguration: A Failing Promise of Peace

Since President Donald Trump’s second inauguration in January 2025, Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine have more than doubled, reaching unprecedented levels despite his campaign promises to end the war in a single day. This escalation, verified by data from the Ukrainian Air Force, paints a stark contrast to Trump’s rhetoric of swift diplomacy and a personal rapport with Russian President Vladimir Putin. As a ceasefire deadline looms, the Kremlin's characterization of recent US-Russia talks as "constructive" rings hollow against the backdrop of intensified violence and a deepening humanitarian crisis in Ukraine.

A Broken Promise of Peace

Throughout his 2024 campaign, Trump repeatedly claimed he could halt the Russia-Ukraine conflict within 24 hours, leveraging his supposed influence over Putin. He argued that the invasion, which began in February 2022, would not have occurred under a president the Kremlin "respected." Yet, since his return to the White House, the reality on the ground tells a different story. According to BBC Verify, Russia launched 27,158 munitions between January 20 and July 19, 2025, compared to 11,614 in the final six months of President Joe Biden’s term—a staggering increase. The Ukrainian Air Force reported a peak of 748 drones and missiles on July 9, 2025, with devastating consequences, including civilian casualties and infrastructure damage.

This surge in attacks, particularly on civilian targets like hospitals, schools, and Kyiv’s power grid, underscores a grim reality: Putin appears emboldened, not deterred, by Trump’s approach. Critics, including Senator Chris Coons, argue that Trump’s decisions—such as pausing air defense munitions deliveries to Ukraine on two occasions—have signaled weakness, giving Russia the freedom to intensify its assaults. Posts on X reflect growing skepticism, with some labeling Trump as "Putin’s poodle" for failing to impose sanctions despite the escalation.

"Constructive" Talks Amid Destruction

The Kremlin’s recent description of US-Russia talks as "constructive" refers to a meeting between Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, and Putin in Moscow on August 4, 2025, just days before Trump’s August 8 ceasefire deadline. While the Kremlin highlighted the "useful" nature of these discussions, the lack of concrete outcomes and continued Russian barrages cast doubt on their effectiveness. On July 31, 2025, Kyiv endured one of its deadliest attacks, with 309 drones and eight cruise missiles killing 28 people, including three children. This followed a record-setting assault on July 9, involving 728 drones and 13 missiles, which Trump himself described as Putin throwing "bullsh*t" at peace efforts.

Trump’s frustration is palpable. His public statements have grown sharper, with remarks like, “What the hell happened to him [Putin]?” after a massive May 25, 2025, barrage. He has issued ultimatums, threatening sanctions and tariffs on Russia and its trade partners like India and China if the war continues past August 8. Yet, Putin’s refusal to back down—insisting on territorial concessions from Ukraine—suggests the Russian leader perceives little credible pressure. As Nina Khrushcheva, a professor of international affairs, noted, “Putin doesn’t take Trump seriously,” believing he can outlast Western resolve.

A Humanitarian and Strategic Crisis

The human toll of Russia’s intensified campaign is devastating. In Kyiv, daily explosions have become a grim reality, with residents like journalist Dasha Volk describing the constant fear of death from missile strikes. The war has displaced 3.7 million Ukrainians internally and driven 6.9 million abroad, with 12.7 million requiring humanitarian aid. Russia’s targeting of civilian infrastructure, including maternity wards and power grids, has drawn accusations of war crimes, further isolating Moscow diplomatically.

Strategically, Trump’s approach has strained US relations with both Ukraine and NATO allies. His administration’s push for Ukraine to cede territory, including Crimea, and its pause on critical weapons shipments have sparked tensions with Kyiv. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while calling recent talks with Trump “useful,” has emphasized the urgent need for air defense systems like Patriot missiles to counter Russia’s drone-heavy assaults. Meanwhile, allies like Poland, whose embassy in Kyiv was damaged in a July 4 strike, are pressing for stronger action against Russia.